Jack Links 500: Talladega DFS and Betting Picks
Happy race day NASCAR fans! Brian and Kyle are in to get you set for the Jack Link’s 500 as NASCAR heads to Talladega after the Easter break. Consider subscribing to this newsletter if you have yet to do so. Also give Brian and Kyle a follow for more NASCAR betting and DFS thoughts in 2025!
Feel free to fade or follow any or all of the following plays/picks. For a more extensive breakdown of the bets and DraftKings picks, check out this weeks episodes on YouTube! If you have questions or want to chat NASCAR, hit us up on Twitter, comment on YouTube, or on this article.
As a reminder, only bet what you can afford to lose. If you think you may have a gambling problem call 1-800-Gambler.
DraftKings Values
Brian’s Targets
BJ McLeod | $5,200 | Starting 38th
He might be amongst the last listed in salary, but he’s the first I’m rostering this week in Talladega. BJ,won’t blow you away with speed, nor even stay with the lead pack this weekend. But what he will do is be running at the end, and in a better position than he started. In nine career starts at ‘Dega, McLeod has finished better than he started in all but one of them. He’s finished inside the top 30 six times, and he’s actually led laps in three of the last four.
Our guy will run his own race, staying out of harm's way, and ultimately come home in a better position than he started. Oh yeah, he’s also projected to be rostered in under 10% of lineups according to WTR, which is very important this week in tournament play.
Kyle Larson | $9,500 Starting 25th
Larson’s struggles at superspeedways are well documented, but he finished 4th here last fall, had a 4th place finish in early 2022, and has finished better than this starting spot in five of the six Gen 7 races. Kyle is a threat to compete for a win everywhere we go, yes, including here, and with everyone aware of his “weaknesses” in this package, he offers a tiny bit of leverage against the field. Will he crush our souls with a wreck?, maybe, but can he also win? Heck yeah! It’s Dega, let’s get wild!
Anthony Alfredo | $5,300 | Starting 31st
Just like our friend BJ McLeod, Anthony Alfredo is a must at superspeedways. His resume is short, but in four Cup races at Talladega, he boasts an average finish of 13th, has three finishes of 12th or better with two T10s, and an average positive placement differential of 16.25! Similar to McLeod’s strategy, as a non-regular in the Cup Series, Alfredo won’t be trying to mix it up for stage points. He’ll just try to survive the first 90% of the race and put himself in position for a good finish late. Look for Fast Pasta to cook up an awesome day once again in Alabama.
Kyle’s Targets
Chase Elliott | $9,000 | Starting 30th
Despite the jokes about his ability to win races, Chase Elliott is a SMASH this week on DraftKings. He is starting 30th and priced at 9K at where he has been rock solid. In Stage 2 over the last 6 years, Elliott has finished 8th or better. He will be in position to make something happen in Stage 3.
Before finishing 29th last year, he was a top 15 finisher the previous 5 years including a win and two more Top 10 finishes. Which is insanely consistent for a track with so much carnage. If he can get in the Top 10 and potentially better after starting 30th we will be rockin and rollin!
In Cash, Elliott is a must use in my opinion. If you want to fade him in tournaments for leverage, I wouldn’t talk you out of it but it seems like fading Ricky Stenhouse, Erik Jones or Justin Haley will give you similar ownership leverage without fading one of the best Talladega targets.
Ross Chastain | $7,700 | Starting 32nd
This week, like all Superspeedway weeks, we are going to stack the back. Of all the guys starting near the back, Ross Chastain is my favorite. The Watermelon Man was an easy add to the betting card early in the week at 28/1. His performances at this track, despite the unfortunate results, have been strong. He has consistently moved forward and been in the top 10 of Stage 1 or 2 if not both. In 2022, Chastain's first year with Trackhouse, he won the spring race and finished in the top 5 in the fall.
Starting in the back is not a new thing for the 1 car, who has started 19th or worse in all but one Talladega start with Trackhouse. He will need to keep his car clean for all three stages to reward those who use him, but his upside is race winner. This potential will bring a good amount of ownership but he feels like good chalk in a week that will be full of it.
Noah Gragson | $6,300 | Starting 27th
At a track where we want to stack the back and Fords thrive, Noah Gragson makes for a compelling target. He is starting 27th at a palatable $6,300. Easy to fit into almost any lineup. And while he wont be overlooked by any means, he could be squeezed with Justin Haley and Erik Jones priced right above and below him.
Like most drivers at Talladega, he has a wide range of outcomes even in limited starts. However, In this race last year, Gragson started 36th and finished 3rd! He also showed promise running in the top 10 for Legacy in the 2023 fall race. If he can build on that we can cook.
If your playing Cash this week, your shell should contain most if not all of the guys below. They are all starting in the back, affordable and will come with a ton of company.
GridRival Pick Slips
We have partnered with GridRival for the 2025 NASCAR season where you can get a 100% deposit bonus of up to $100 when using Code AOP25. Feel free to fade or follow our targets this week.
For Talladega, we suggest not getting too spicy. Dega brings so much carnage that limiting your picks to two or three feels like the move.
Favorite Shriners Children’s 500 Bets
Brian’s Play
Full disclosure, there isn’t a single market I’d consider “value” this week, and as of writing, nothing on a specific driver catching my eye. HOWEVER!, I think there’s one prop, with a bit, and I mean miniscule, amount of leverage against the books.
Fastest Lap Under 200.5 MPH -115 (Caesars) Bet 1.15u to win 1u
I went back and checked all six previous Gen 7 races at Talladega, and this under hit in all of them. Now, up until last fall, this hit by a significant margin, with the fastest laps being in the 197 mph range. That 2024 fall race saw 12 drivers eclipse 198 mph, with five of them, all back markers for what it’s worth, going over 199. The fastest of which being SVG at 199.44 mph.
The dramatic jump in speed from spring to fall last year is a little worrisome. But with us squarely in the “fuel-mileage” superspeedway era, and this being an early season race, I think the 1 mph cushion is more than enough. Especially since the last two spring race fastest laps have been at least 1 mph slower than seen in the fall. It is Dega, so we’re not getting crazy, but a bet to win 1u is just fine for some added fun here.
Kyle’s Play
Chase Elliott to Win Stage 2 +2200 (Caesars) 1U
Betting anything at Talladega seems like a fools errand so here the fuck I am! As I mentioned with Chase Elliott in my DraftKings thoughts, he has been really strong into Stage 2. He has finished 8th or better in Stage2 including three 2nd place finishes and a Stage 2 win. With so much carnage coming in Stage 3 especially, I will look to lock in a winner before the end of the race.
Latest Episodes
Final Betting Cards
Brian Betting Card
Kyle’s Betting Card
Good luck on all your Jack Link’s 500 Bets and may your DFS Lineups cash! As a reminder, only bet what you can afford to lose, especially this week. If you think you may have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-Gambler.
Both Brian and Kyle are always on the hunt for opportunities. Make sure you follow both of us on Twitter to see if we make any additional adds to the betting card. Hopefully we get some fun racing and cash some tickets in the process. Enjoy this weeks race in Talladega!