Grant Park 165 at Chicago: NASCAR DFS and Betting Picks
Happy race day NASCAR fans! Brian and Kyle are in to break down their favorite targets on DraftKings and options jumping out at the betting window for the Grant Park 165 as NASCAR heads to Chicago. Consider subscribing to this newsletter if you have yet to do so. Follow Brian and Kyle for more NASCAR betting and DFS thoughts!
Feel free to fade or follow. For a more extensive breakdown of the bets and DraftKings picks, check out this weeks episodes on YouTube! If you have questions or want to chat NASCAR, feel free to hit us up on Twitter, YouTube or in the comments of these articles. Let crush it at Chicago!
DraftKings Values
Brian’s Targets
Christopher Bell | $10,00 | Starting 7th
My analysis this weekend will be short with only one of these races under our belt. That said, I think it's fair to classify Christopher Bell as one of the true contenders for the race win based on last year’s performance. He was quite possibly the only car that matched and even outpaced SVG that day before succumbing to the wetness and “wrecking”. Sitting on 3 wins already this year, the 20 team can afford to get aggressive this weekend and go for gold in Chicago. He’s also a great pivot off the two race favorites of Kyle Larson and SVG, who is beyond belief, winning the Loop 101.
Martin Truex Jr. | $9,200 | Starting 24th
I know Truex didn’t look great in qualifying but single lap speeds on road courses, they’re similar enough, aren’t his strong suit anyways. Where Martin excels is on the long run and that’s an area he looked very competitive in during practice. Let’s also not forget he was really fast in Chicago last season before being one of the many cars to fall victim to the wet conditions. He’s priced similarly to drivers like William Byron, Allmendinger, and Buescher, who I think may help keep his roster % lower than normal on this track type.
Bubba Wallace | $6,200 | Starting 6th
WHOA! Bubba qualifying 6th on this type of track wasn’t something I expected. It is something I think we can leverage though. I expect most people to avoid Wallace like the plague from this starting position which presents a tremendous value to crazies like me. He was extremely fast in practice and continued to improve during qualifying as well. At this price, Bubba’s YOLO upside here is worth it to me.
Kyle’s Targets
Tyler Reddick | $9,800 | Starting 4th
I don’t fault anyone who starts their builds with Kyle Larson or Shane van Gisbergen this week especially when you look at their outright price. That being said, if I am building tournament entries I am targeting Tyler Reddick.
The 45 has been incredible on road courses since 2023 posting the best total speed ranking over all road courses over that span. He has also been the most dominant on the two road courses run thus far in 2024.
If you look back at his 2023 race in Chicago, it leaves a lot to be desired on the surface. Reddick finished 28th after starting 2nd. However a deeper dive will show that he was 2nd after stage 1 and 3rd after stage 2. He also led 8 laps and helped him have the 5th best average driver rating despite his unfortunate finish. Assuming he doesn't crash, his results look much different.
For me, Reddick possesses much of the same upside that makes SVG and Larson so appealing but at a much lower ownership percentage. Depending on where you look, Reddick is rostered 8-10% less. In some contests it may be even more. I'll take the salary savings with the lower owned driver in tournaments.
AJ Allmendinger | $9,000 | Starting 37th
It is pretty easy to overthink things or get too cute on DraftKings, especially when you are trying to build unique lineups to take down tournaments. But as I always try to remind myself, you don’t have to be unique with every driver.
Dinger the ringer is starting 37th on Sunday after he failed to run a second qualifying lap. Maybe he hated the car or maybe he was just annoyed. Either way, a driver of his caliber starting this far back opens up plenty of opportunities. Now, AJ should be very popular in all contests, so you will want to build smartly in tournaments. For a driver that is 4th in average speed rankings at road courses since 2023, how do you avoid him?
Allmendinger was fine from a lap average perspective in practice. He also ran the Xfinity race, gaining more track time and learning where he needs to make on track adjustments. A will timed caution could vault into the optimal lineup conversation but even a midpack finish would be huge.
Corey LaJoie | $6,100 | Starting 20th
The discount options this week in Chicago give me the same feeling as gas station sushi. You know it's a terrible idea but your desperate for options and it’s sounding better by the minute. This week's gas station sushi standout is Corey LaJoie. Who at $6,100 makes for an interesting case and the fact that he is already starting in the top 20 will surely turn the field off. This is even more apparent as Lajoie will have to go to rear thanks to hitting the wall in qualifying. I will be the bozo lining up to play .1% owned Corey Lajoie this week.
That being said, there are some reasons for optimism. A year ago, he started 19th and was able to finish 14th. This finish actually had merit to it as Win the Race had LaJoie 6th in their True Performance rankings. LaJoie is also coming off one of his best finishes at Sonoma where he finished 11th after starting 17th.
This week, Lajoie showed decent speed in his group, posting the 6th fastest 5 lap average. Surely he won’t blow the field away or even contend for a race win but at $6,100 he helps lineups work, can move forward and score some DK points. Let's hope we aren't running to the bathroom mid race because he clipped the wall and is headed to the garage.
Favorite Bets
Brian’s Target
I’m even more unsure about this race than I was before practice and qualifying, especially seeing how damn good SVG and Kyle Larson looked. Any value on the Aussie is long gone and I have a hard time betting the 2nd best car at under 4-1. Their performances have helped maintain value on a certain set of drivers with one of them being a guy I’ve already backed this week.
Tyler Reddick Top 5 +125 (Bet365)
Red Dog opened the week as one of the pre-practice and qualifying favorites and for good reason. He’s been quite possibly the best road course driver in the next-gen car and always unloads as one of the fastest cars for a road race. This held true on Saturday in Chicago where Reddick was the 8th fastest, overall, in practice. Followed by a 4th place qualifying effort, which is his 15th straight start of 8th or better, 14 of them being 5th or better, at a road/street course.
This market hovered around +115 prior to practice and qualifying, and simply because of how strong SVG, Larson, and fellow Toyota Ty Gibbs looked, has floated a bit. I bet it before qualifying, and I’m hitting again after. This 45-team should run near the front all day and if things go right, could be a threat to win. He’s rocking another awesome Michael Jordan paint scheme and I'm still confident that my dude Tyler Reddick can put together a very strong performance. Finishing near, or god willing, at the front is very much in the cards for Reddick this weekend in Chicago.
Kyle’s Target
Chris Buescher Top Ford +650 (Caesars) .5U
Maybe this will end up looking really silly but the Top Ford market seems to be providing value on anyone not named Michael McDowell this week. I love me some McDriver, especially at road courses but -150 or worse feels wrong. Especially for a Front Row Motorsports driver who is desperate for a win. Maybe we get a wild decision like New Hampshire that ends his day early.
I am going to attach my horse to Chris Buescher who has the 2nd shortest odds at +650. With Chevy and Toyota dominating the outright board, someone from the Ford camp may barely crack the top 10 and finish as their top manufacturer.
If you look at total speed rankings for road courses since 2023, Buescher is the top Ford and sits at 7th overall. He also had the 6th best average speed ranking at Chicago in 2023. With Blaney and Keselowski having to go to the rear, Buescher becomes even more interesting. Other Fords that are somewhat interesting include Logano and Briscoe if you want to throw a few darts at longer numbers.
Chevrolet to win -140 (DraftKings) 5U
I typically hate the manufacturer props given the prices and randomness that is NASCAR but this week it's too hard to avoid. By taking Chevy, I get to add both SVG and Kyle Larson who are +190 and +350 on Caesars. They are far and away the biggest favorites.
Not only do I get the big favorite but I can add a few longer shots who can pop at road courses including Larson’s teammates William Byron, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. I also get to add the Trackhouse boys Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez.
While the Toyota garage offers a handful of very viable candidates, this wager was just too hard to pass up. Especially with Gibbs 20/1 sitting on the card and some Redddick exposure in the finishing position prop.
This week I will look to have my cake and eat it too.
This Weeks Episodes
Final Betting Card
Brian’s Targets
Kyle’s Targets
Good luck this week in Chicago! Both Brian and I are always on the hunt for opportunities this week. Make sure you follow both of us on Twitter to see if we make any additional adds to the betting card. The books are really squeezing bettors this week. Hopefully we get some fun racing and cash some tickets in the process.