AdventHealth 400 at Kansas: NASCAR DFS and Betting Picks
Happy race day NASCAR fans! Brian and Kyle are in to break down their favorite targets on DraftKings and at the betting window for this weeks AdventHealth 400 at Kansas. Follow Brian and Kyle for more NASCAR thoughts!
As always, feel free to fade or follow. For a more extensive breakdown of the bets and DraftKings picks, check out this weeks episodes on YouTube! If you have questions or want to chat NASCAR, feel free to hit us up on Twitter, YouTube or in the comments of these articles. Let crush it the mile and a half at Kansas!
DraftKings Values
Brian’s Targets
Denny Hamlin - $11,300 - Starting 14th
Wash, rinse, repeat, Denny is on my list again but how could he not be. The dude is pretty much the Wizard of Oz at this point and owns Kansas. Hamlin has a series best 4.3, yeah, you read that right, 4.3 average finish over the last six trips down the Yellow Brick Road and he’s finished as the runner-up or winner in the last three races here.
Hamlin has found that 2020 form which saw him win 7 races on the year including a win at Kansas. The last win for a driver with an official starting position of 10th or worse at the track. The 11 team is hitting on all cylinders at the moment and considering his dominance at this track, I don’t expect that to stop this week.
Bubba Wallace - $9,500 - Starting 23rd
Outside of Denny, Bubba is my favorite DFS play this week. The success of 23XI is well documented here and includes a victory by Wallace back in 2022. Bubba didn’t exactly light the stopwatch on fire during qualifying but threw down some very nice practice numbers. He wound up with the 9th-best 15-lap, and 7th-best 20-lap averages which aren’t “WOW”, but that wasn’t the most enthralling part about the session for the 23.
Bubba looked to be the only driver, at least competitive one that ran the entire duration of the session. This tells me that they hit on the set-up, and he likes his car. Not that surprising after hearing his pre-qualifying interview. All the more reason to like him especially considering he’s qualified outside the top 10 in four of the previous six trips here. With half of those resulting in Top 10 finishes, including last spring when he finished 4th after starting 17th.
Riley Herbst - $5,300 - Starting 37th
Yes, Riley Herbst has not been good here in the Xfinity Series. I simply don’t care because that’s not what we need. What he has been good at over his first five career Cup Series races is staying clean, made all the more impressive by the fact they’ve all been superspeedways. This is exactly what we need from him today.
Riley is jumping in the No.15 RWR car, most likely backed by SHR, his Xfinity affiliation, with the goal of gaining experience and just bringing it home in one piece. If he can keep all four tires on it and stay out of trouble by just running his race. Herbst could find himself near a 25th place finish simply as a result of full-timers racing hard and wrecking out or sustaining penalties trapping them laps down.
Kyle’s Targets
William Byron - $10,500 - Starting 36th
I have been on William Byron all week and I am not ready to jump off now. He will be starting 36th on Sunday thanks to getting a bit too aggressive on his qualifying lap. Prior to that, he looked like a rocket ship. He dominated Group A of practice and was the fastest in 10, 20 and 25 lap average.
Byron has also been dominant on 1.5 mile tracks including a 3rd at Texas and a 10th at Las Vegas. And that 10th should have been much better had it not been for a plastic bag. It has been a mixed bag for Byron over the past few trips to Kansas but his peak is race winner. He has multiple Top 6 finishes over the last 3 seasons.
Starting 36th, even if it's in a backup car, provides plenty of opportunity for Byron to rack up DraftKings points. He should move forward pretty quickly and approach the top 10 in Stage 1. Ultimately I expect Byron to contend for the win, which should come with fastest laps and ideally laps led.
Bubba Wallace - $9,500 - Starting 23rd
It’s hard to fade Bubba Wallace this week at a track where 23XI has been so dominant. That history also includes a win and a top 5 finish from Bubba Wallace. He also is tied with Martin Truex Jr and Ross Chastain for 5th in next gen speed rankings.
In practice, Wallace was showing speed, not the same as teammate Tyler Reddick but speed nonetheless. He should be able to make the appropriate tweaks before Sunday’s race to have his car ready to roll.
Wallace is starting 23rd on Sunday. That is far enough back where a win won't be necessary to have a big day on DraftKings. In this race a year ago, Wallace started 17th and finished 4th leading 9 laps and having 15 fastest laps in the process. Sunday should be a very similar story with a bit more wiggle room. A top 10 feels very safe with a top 5 finish very much in range.
Justin Haley - $5,100 - Starting 35th
There are a ton of high priced options that a compelling case can be made for. And if you want to make those lineups work, you will have to do some dumpster diving. Both Brian and I don’t see a massive difference between the names in the 6K range and the 5K range. So if we are going to dig, lets dig!
Justin Haley is starting 35th at just $5,100. This screams value! Especially for a driver that has multiple top 20 finishes at Kansas. Now a Rick Ware ride is never the picture of race winning upside, but that is not what we are looking for, especially starting 35th. But they haven't been an abject disaster this season which is progress. Those results include a 27th at Las Vegas and 24th at Texas, which are the best track comparisons for Kansas.
If Haley is able to finish in the mid twenties and potentially higher like he has shown the ability to do at Kansas, he will more than pay off his $5,100 price tag. He will be relatively poplar for the 5K range so keep that in mind as you build lineups. He is also priced this way for a reason so I would avoid going massively overweight on Haley this week. Riley Herbst, Harrison Burton and Corey Lajoie all make sense in a similar price range.
Favorite Bets
Brian’s Targets
Bubba Wallace/Chase Elliott Top 10’s +260 (CZRS) 1u
Not sure if Caesars meant to repost this line but I’ll gladly take it. Elliott has been stupendous here at Kansas since jumping into the HMS 9-car back in 2018. Over the 12 races here since then, he’s finished worse than 12th just once and has 8 of his 10 career top-10s here.
Wallace has been equally impressive in the land of OZ since joining 23XI before the 2021 season. Over the six races since that year, Bubba’s average finish is 14.5 and he’s nabbed a top 10 in 3 of 4 next-gen events here. Oh yeah, this includes his victory back in 2022.
Despite their differing starting positions, I expect both to be hovering inside the top 10 nearly all-day with the distinct possibility they’re battling for a top 5 as well.
Kyle’s Targets
Daniel Suarez +300 > Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher and Joey Logano (Superbook) 1U
I like this group wager for a variety of reasons. First off, it gives us a chance to fade the Fords this week. The optimism for that manufacturer is very low and yet we are getting a nice price with a Chevrolet. Suarez is prices at +300 in this group.
Understandably Daniel Suarez is not the most compelling option from that garage. That being said, Suarez has been strong on the mile and halves this season. He locked up a top 5 finish at Texas and an 11th place finish in Las Vegas. This after being strong in 2023 finishing 16th or better at intermediates including top 10 finishes at Vegas and Texas.
If he can find the top 15 and ideally top 10, Suarez will almost assuredly cash this group matchup for us. I expect Logano to sink like a rock and for RFK to underwhelm with the vast majority of the fords. Maybe Brad K grabs track position and doesn't let it go but I will take my chances with Suarez and his upside. Especially when the potential reward is 3/1.
Bubba Wallace T10 -134 (BetRivers) 5U
Going a bit aggressive here with Bubba Wallace but -134 to finish in the top 10 feels like a great number. He has finished in the Top 10 in 3 of his last 4 trips to Kansas including a win and another top 5 showing. The one race he didn't? He was 2nd after stage 1 and ended up finishing 32nd due to a blown tire.
In practice Bubba showed enough speed to make me feel confident about his Sunday potential even with his 23rd starting position. I would be fine targeting Bubba up to -145 to finish Top 10. I wouldn't fault anyone who looked at his top 5 price and potentially outright. His top Toyota number is appealing but he is probably finding victory lane with Denny, CBell, Reddick and Truex all serious contenders. Kyle Larson could dust them all and make it a non-issue.
This Weeks Episodes
Final Betting Card
Brian’s Card
Kyle’s Card
Good luck this week at Kansas!